Strauss Institute: Did You Know?

Research Summary: The more you think you know the less likely you are to know it. That seems to be the message behind Nyhan’s studies of the Clinton and Obama healthcare debates. He found that those people who identified as GOP and rated themselves as knowledgeable about the respective healthcare bills, were actually more likely to endorse misperceptions, such as the infamous “death panels” during the Obama healthcare debate. Nyhan notes that, unfortunately, even when these misperceptions are debunked, people are likely to hold on to them. He thus proposes that perhaps we should place more emphasis on the damage that can be done by an elite that promotes these misperceptions.

Citation: Nyhan, B. (2010). Why the “death panel” myth wouldn’t die: Misinformation in the health care reform debate. The Forum, 8(1), doi: 10.2202/1540-8884.1354

Research summary: Although television is still the most popular news source, Internet news popularity is growing. Fox News and CNN are among the most popular networks but consumers view them quite differently. Conservative viewers prefer Fox, and liberal viewers prefer CNN. However, some viewers also scour the Internet for news. Recent research by Nie and his colleagues found that CNN audiences are more liberal when they also surf the Internet for news. Fox audiences who use Internet news are more conservative. Online news users are also specialists who chose niche issues as the most important issues facing the nation. The cheap mode of production online allows sites to specialize in far-from-center news and niche issues that can’t be covered due to the large overhead cost of television. Future consumers of news will have more choices, but we’re still uncertain if these choices are merely allowing the electorate to choose sources that are more reflective of their personal politics. As we push forward into the digital age, future research can give us a closer look into just how polarizing our news consumption may be.

Citation: Nie, N. H., Miller, D. W. III, Golde, S., Butler, D. M., & Winneg, K. (2010). The World Wide Web and the U.S. political news market. American Journal of Political Science, 54(2), 428- 439.

Research Summary: What we think truly does have an impact on the policymaking process. Progress in public opinion research reveals that our opinions do not go unnoticed by government officials. In an article that synthesizes the most significant advances made to policy-related public opinion research, Mullinix emphasizes how public opinion and policymaking feed off of each other. Mullinix finds that the media can shape and polarize our support for specific policies, which policymakers can use to their advantage. Although complexities exist within the relationship between public opinion and policymaking, both clearly influence one another.

Citation: Mullinix, K. (2011). Lingering debates and innovative advances: The state of public opinion research. The Policy Studies Journal, 39(S1), 61-76. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0072.2010.00389_5.x

Research Summary: President George W. Bush was often framed as a folksy cowboy at his Crawford, Texas ranch. Because of this and similar imagery, Nicholson and Segura propose that the party of “the people” has shifted from Democrats to Republicans. However, according to members of the public from across all socioeconomic groups, Democrats are consistently identified as the party of “the people.” But among diehard Republicans, many said they “don’t know” in response to the question of which party was the party of the people, indicating that strongly conservative individuals are more ambivalent about this question. Despite popular theories and media frames, researchers Nicholson and Segura argue that to most voters, Democrats are still seen as the party of the people.

Citation: Nicholson, S. P., & Segura, G. M. (2011). Who’s the party of the people? Economic populism and the U.S. public’s beliefs about political parties. Political Behavior, 33, 1-21. doi: 10.1007/s11109-011-9162-0

Research summary: Scholars have examined the Internet for a variety of reasons, but a significant investment has been made toward understanding its effects on political knowledge, political participation, and the fragmentation or homogenization of online audiences. The results over much of the literature have been inconsistent in support of many of these theories. However, a recent cumulative analysis of past research looks at the role that social context plays in one’s news consumption. Scholars Mitchelstein and Boczkowski suggest that media practices have not been fully examined and that a pattern of consumption may exist. For instance, people may be more likely to use certain sources of news in light of different news events (an election versus the launch of a space shuttle, for example). As scholarship around Internet usage grows, these are important tenets to consider when designing research studies and exploring the larger effects of the Internet on political engagement.

Citation: Mitchelstein, E., & Boczkowski, Pablo J. (2010). Online news consumption research: An assessment of past work and an agenda for the future. New Media Society, 12(7). 1085-1101. doi: 10.1177/1461444809350193

Research summary: When politicians are planning their campaigns, they have to consider recruiting new supporters and activating partisans. Recent research by McGhee and Sides suggests that campaigns may be more crucial for the latter. Partisan voting is not affected by the state of the national economy or the popularity of the incumbent president. Rather, how much a candidate spends on a campaign and if they outspend the rival candidate is more likely to mobilize partisans and possibly “de-mobilize” partisans belonging to the rival party. The state economy also has an effect on partisan turnout during mid-term years, depending on the party in power and the state of the economy. For example, if the Democrats were in power and the economy was bad, Democrat voters would be less likely to vote. Based on this research, campaigns should not take partisans for granted and must make an effort to mobilize them and outspend the rival party.

Citation: McGhee, E. & Sides, J. (2011). Do campaigns drive partisan turnout? Political Behavior, 33(2), 313- 333. doi: 10.1007/s11109-010-9127-8

Research Summary: The spiral of silence theory, the idea that one will only express their political opinions around like-minded others, does not stand a chance against people who strongly believe in the validity of their beliefs. In a series of three separate survey-based studies, research shows individuals with high levels of attitude certainty on specific issues are more likely to express their opinion in a hostile environment. With strong convictions that their opinions are correct, people with high attitude certainty do not fall victim to the spiral of silence. The opposite occurs for individuals who possess weak-to-moderate attitude certainty. So the next time you find yourself at a dinner party, and everyone at the table disagrees, you just might voice your opposition if you’re certain it’s right.

Citation: Matthes, J., Morrison, K. R., & Schemer, C. (2010). A spiral of silence for some: Attitude certainty and the expression of political minority opinions. Communication Research, 37(6), 774-800. doi: 10.1177/0093650210362685

Research Summary: Democrats and Republicans are starkly divided on many issues. Yet the stark division in their rhetoric may lend more insight into their polarization than any political issue. Marietta found that, generally speaking, Republicans were more likely to invoke sacred rhetoric, or absolutist rhetoric, which provides dogmatic justification. Democrats invoked consequentialist rhetoric which provides pragmatic justification. This was especially highlighted in the presidential debates, where Republicans employed rhetoric that had significantly more markers of absolutist rhetoric than Democrats. As Marietta explains, this is not to say that Democrats should be more like Republicans in their rhetoric. Rather, it highlights the differences in the appeals both parties make.

Citation: Marietta, M. (2009). The absolutist advantage: Sacred rhetoric in contemporary presidential debate. Political Communication, 26(4), 388-411. doi: 10.1080/10584600903296986

Research summary: The law may be logical, but politics are subject to our emotions. When confronted with a story that challenges your views, are you angry or anxious? Based on one’s response to this question, researchers can tell if you are more willing to compromise or hold your ground. For example, people who respond with anger are typically averse to the other side and will avoid considering their opponent’s point of view and thus resist compromise. People who respond with anxiety are more likely to consider others’ points of view. This makes them more likely to compromise. Politicians take note: in contrast to today’s mudslinging political ads, cautious advertisements that evoke concern and even anxiety instead of anger in their opponents, just might be successful in garnering support.

Citation: MacKuen, M., Wolak, J., Keele, L., & Marcus, G. E. (2010). Civic engagements: Resolute partisanship or reflective deliberation. American Journal of Political Science, 54(2), 440-458.

Research summary: When middle class citizens have incomes and lifestyles more similar to the poor than the affluent, they tend to support redistributive policies that aim to equalize earnings. However, in a survey of about twenty advanced democracies, the United States was an exception. Despite the somewhat high rate of income inequality between the top ten percent and lowest fifty percent of wage earners, middle class citizens in the United States are less likely to support redistributive policies than their counterparts in other democracies. Big box retailers make high fashion and high technology purchases cheap. Perhaps when lower-to-middle class citizens feel like the affluent, they may be less likely to support redistributive policies. However, the authors had no explanation for this inconsistency, leaving it open for future researchers to investigate.

Citation: Lupu, N., & Pontusson, J. (2011). The structure of inequality and the politics of redistribution. American Political Science Review, 105(2), 316-336. doi: 10.1017/S0003055411000128